e-commerce volumes remain resilient despite geopolitical turmoil

UK based fulfilment and same day delivery specialist Diamond Logistics says its recent growth has significantly outperformed expectations despite continued pressure on the wider retail sector and growing geopolitical uncertainty.

The company, which provides integrated e-commerce fulfilment, inventory management and last mile delivery services from more than 35 fulfilment sites across the UK, had initially forecast monthly growth of around 10%.

However, from January through to May this year it achieved performance 15% above forecast, pointing to continued resilience in underlying consumer demand.

While there were initially fears of consumer confidence taking a significant decline, largely due to households continuing to feel the pressure of rising costs and ongoing uncertainty linked to geopolitical instability in the Middle East, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported that retail sales had actually risen 3.7% year on year in May, marking the strongest increase since April 2025.

This uplift follows the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last month upgrading its UK growth forecast to 1% for 2026, warning that ongoing geopolitical instability and domestic uncertainty could still weigh on growth, particularly through higher energy and food prices.

With the GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer also falling by a headline score of four points in April, reaching its lowest level since autumn 2023, it has since risen by two points.

Across the Diamond Logistics’ UK fulfilment network, warehouse utilisation still remains strong going into Q3, and goods continue to move consistently in and out of sites, with no noticeable drop in demand across either essential or non essential categories.

Speaking on the company’s positive growth figures, Kate Lester, CEO and founder of Diamond Logistics, commented: ‘There is no question the UK economy is under pressure right now, particularly with ongoing instability in the Middle East feeding through into energy markets which could lead to a temporary spike in inflation and a rise in interest rates.

‘We are already seeing the impact of rising fuel costs, and that always has a knock on effect across the supply chain and consumer spending due to fears that prices will rise and as such savings accounts take a hit – leaving retailers having to operate in a far more cautious and price sensitive environment that naturally translates to a dip in sales over time.

‘But what we are seeing on the ground is that consumer behaviour is actually holding up much better than some of the headlines would suggest. That is not only reflective of the growth we are achieving but from a fulfilment perspective, volumes are still strong across our nationwide network, goods are still moving, and demand hasn’t fallen away in the way people might expect in this kind of climate.’

According to Kate, even when finances are under pressure or the wider economy feels uncertain, consumers do not tend to stop spending on non essentials altogether – but rather buying behaviour changes.

She said this is a pattern the business has seen repeatedly during periods of economic uncertainty, challenging suggestions that retail inevitably faces a sharp, across the board contraction. Instead, she argues the reality is more nuanced, with spending tending to shift rather than fall away completely, as consumers continue to prioritise convenience, value and familiar purchasing habits.

Kate added, ‘In the last six years we have faced Covid, a succession of wars, persistent inflationary pressure, and ongoing uncertainty around interest rates.  As a result people have become considerably more accustomed to an environment where things don’t necessarily feel particularly stable.

‘We have also been around for a lot longer than six years and the pattern we have seen emerge over that time, especially during periods of economic uncertainty, is that although consumers might well pull back on bigger ticket purchases, they will still allow themselves smaller, more affordable treats that feel manageable from a cost perspective.

‘While that shift could well be a factor in our volumes remaining strong, I think in general consumers are simply becoming much more resilient and have a better understanding that, rather than pulling back from spending altogether when times are tougher, and budgets become squeezed by rising costs of essentials such as bills, their spending habits often just need to adapt slightly.’