Black Friday nearly here: new analysis finds the peak season returns lull is disappearing 

Black Friday will be coming round soon and new analysis has revealed that the traditional post Christmas dip in retail returns is shrinking, while the volume of returns during the Black Friday and January peaks continue to grow year on year. 

Traditionally, returns volumes drop sharply between Christmas and New Year, giving retailers and warehouses a brief window to recover before activity spikes again following the early January sales. In 2024, the returns during that week were the lowest throughout the year. 

However, data from ReBound Returns shows that in 2025, returns during Christmas week remained in the top third of all weekly returns figures for the year, rather than the usual sharp dip. 

The scale of the seasonal peak is also intensifying. The biggest returns peak of the year tends to fall the week after Black Friday and Cyber Monday. In December 2025, this peak was around 23% higher than the equivalent point in December 2024. This growth trend continued into this year, with January 2026’s spike around 24% higher than January 2025. Following that pattern, this year’s peak season returns could be around a quarter higher than last year. 

The data also showed that returns activity began to climb during Black Friday week itself in both 2024 and 2025, suggesting that a growing number of shoppers are returning items bought in the sale almost as soon as they arrive. Returns then continue to build, with the second week of December consistently the busiest week of the year for returns.

The findings suggest that retailers and logistics partners should not expect the usual breathing space between the December and January returns peaks this year. Instead, returns management experts at ReBound Returns are predicting that elevated returns volumes could run continuously from Black Friday week into the new year. 

Liselotte Reijrink, sales director at ReBound Returns, said: ‘Retailers have got used to a short lull in returns over Christmas itself, before volumes traditionally picked up again in January. Our data suggests that gap is closing; in 2025, returns during Christmas week stayed high rather than dipping as they did the year before. Combined with a growing post-Back Friday peak, it suggests sustained pressure on reverse logistics lasting throughout the entire peak season. 

‘Retailers, logistics firms, and warehousing teams now need to plan not just for a Black Friday and New Year surge, but for a relentless peak period of returns. Processing sent back items quickly so products can return to stock and customers are refunded ready to spend again, will be essential. Preparing to manage the sheer volume expected will help to avoid a backlog that lasts well into 2027.’